ARCTIC SCENARIOS CAN HELP US LOOK FORWARD, FOR BETTER PLANNING TODAY

BY MARIANNE FALARDEAU
Ph.D. DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCE SCIENCES, MCGILL UNIVERSITY

We are entering the Anthropocene, a geological era where human-caused pressures are profoundly transforming ecosystems and their capacity to sustain human needs. We depend on healthy biomes in so many different ways for our well-being, even remote ones like the Arctic and Antarctica. Ecosystems are providing us with food, water, clean air to breathe, they regulate the planet’s climate, they are a source of inspiration, and they can foster our sense of place and identity. These benefits humans obtain from ecosystems are called ecosystem services. As the planet’s climate and ecosystems continue to be transformed by human activities, so will be the ecosystem services that have helped humanity to thrive for millennia.

The world is changing at a rapid pace, but especially the Arctic, where the rate of warming is two to three times more rapid than anywhere else on the planet. Arctic warming triggers many impacts onto marine ecosystems, which in turn alter ecosystem services and the humans who depend upon them. For instance, marine species from temperate latitudes are expanding their range into polar areas at a rate up to 52 km per year (IPCC 2019). These new species can affect Arctic species through predation, competition, habitat loss or pathogens’ transmission, including top predators like whales, seals and Arctic char that are harvested by coastal communities. The loss of the Arctic sea ice cover is also directly affecting the many Arctic peoples who use the sea ice as a travel platform to access harvest sites or visit other communities. Monitoring all of these climatic, ecological, social changes and their interactions is vital to inform adaptation and management in the Arctic. Some approaches can even allow us to explore how future changes might unfold and how to best respond.

In particular, participatory scenario planning (PSP) has gained wide attention worldwide as a powerful approach to explore the future of our changing planet (for instance, see this IPBES report). PSP leads to the co-production of scenarios, or plausible stories of the future, each exploring different future trends and their social-ecological implications. PSP brings together different types of information, from climate models to Indigenous and local knowledge, as part of participatory processes that involve a diversity of stakeholders. Scenarios can then serve a range of purposes, from providing information on future environmental changes, raising awareness on what the future might hold – both good and bad –, to guiding decision-making toward sustainable management paths. 

In the film "Hivunikhavut - Our Future" I present a participatory scenario planning project that we conducted in Cambridge Bay, in the Kitikmeot Region of Nunavut. Our goal was to explore the impacts of future environmental changes (especially climate change and marine developments) on the Kitikmeot marine ecosystem by 2050, and the implications of these changes for ecosystem services and local communities. We also identified how today’s actions and decisions could lead to more locally desirable futures. The project spanned two years over which I consulted over a hundred community members, Elders and harvesters. The project culminated in a participatory workshop that brought together Inuit community members, managers and scientists.

The PSP approach we developed is unique in that it combined a ‘traditional’ scenario planning method (which depict scenarios with high versus low levels of environmental trends) with a positive visioning exercise. Indeed, participants were encouraged to imagine positive future outcomes within the challenging conditions caused by climate change and marine developments, and how to reach those positive outcomes. Climate change and its range of impacts can be daunting and make us think about the future in gloomy terms, especially in the Arctic that is expected to experience profound changes. In this context, scenario planning may lead to dystopian scenarios; where future outcomes are depicted as mostly negative, and where communities are portrayed as passive actors experiencing environmental change. Such scenarios can raise feelings of helplessness. Positive visioning emerged as a way to rather focus on all the things people can do to actively shape positive futures. By combining positive visioning with a traditional scenario method, we were able to explore how stakeholders could respond in the best ways possible to different plausible environmental trends by 2050. I was very impressed by all the creative and innovative ideas workshop participants proposed during this PSP process. For example, participants proposed the creation of a circumpolar platform for all Inuit to share good ideas for dealing with environmental changes and creating new opportunities. They also proposed to advance technologies for designing environmentally friendly ships and boats that would ‘leave no trace’ in the environment, as well as underwater cameras that can monitor Arctic wildlife without disturbing them.

Overall, I found that using a diversity of exercises, from more academic science-based activities, to positive visioning and art, fostered creative and diverse ideas to be featured in the scenarios. I decided to interview participants, film the PSP process, and share it as a film and scenario report, in order to spread the word about future Arctic change, but also about all the things that can be done to support desirable Arctic futures. Many of the actions proposed in the scenarios concern Arctic stakeholders – youth, Elders, communities, organizations, governments – but southerners were also evoked many times. For instance, the importance of advocating for the Arctic in ‘the South’ was emphasized, as well as the need to improve North – South communication, respect and mutual understanding. Workshop participants suggested that more PSP workshops should be conducted across communities of the North to gather diverse ideas for building desirable Arctic futures. Additionally, some of them suggested that workshops could be done every five years or so, in order to track if current decisions and actions are aligned with desirable futures to take place.

I acted as the lead of this PSP project, which was part of my doctoral research at McGill University. This project was mentored by my supervisor, Dr. Elena Bennett, and by Dr. Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne. We are grateful to the community of Cambridge Bay, the Ekaluktutiak Hunters and Trappers Organization (EHTO), and to everyone who contributed their knowledge and insights to the project (please see the full acknowledgements at the end of the film and in the scenario report).

Marianne Falardeau did her Ph.D. in the Department of Natural Resource Sciences at McGill University (Montreal, Canada) under the supervision of Professor Elena Bennett. She holds a B.Sc. and M.Sc. in Biology from Université Laval (Quebec City, Canada). Marianne has carried out a transdisciplinary doctoral research where she bridged across disciplines and knowledge systems to study the changing Arctic Ocean. She also looked into ways to conserve and sustainably manage Arctic marine resources. Marianne is an eager science communicator. She loves to share her passion for the Arctic and the oceans with the public, and to raise awareness of the environmental issues that are shaping our planet.

Follow Marianne on Twitter @Marianne_Fa and read more about her research at https://mariannefalardeau.wixsite.com/polar.